20th July 2022
Mid-year outlook from leading shipbroker Simpson Spence Young
After a volatile H1 2022, leading shipbroker Simpson Spence Young (SSY) reviews the last six months and highlights areas of particular interest. This comprehensive overview scrutinises various drivers in commodities and shipping markets, including how the war in Ukraine and developing emissions regulations is affecting the state of play.
Contributions come from a range of senior research and broking experts and cover dry bulk, tanker and gas freight markets, shipping investments, CO2 emissions and derivatives.
Read the full report here.
SSY Chairman Mark Richardson said:
"When we look back over the first six months of 2022, there are numerous events that have contributed to what's been a turbulent time for economies across the world. The conflict in Ukraine has had far reaching consequences. This, together with global weather events, the energy crisis, growing inflation, the ongoing impact of COVID-19 and disruption to supply chains, has resulted in a highly volatile environment for the shipping industry..."
Over the first six months of 2022, international shipping carbon emissions have continued on an upward trajectory and, according to Marine Benchmark estimates, are now estimated to have surpassed 850 million tonnes on an annual basis, 1.3% above 2021 levels. While this analysis picks up all vessels over 100 GT, it does exclude non-IMO registered vessels. [P45]
Even before the invasion of Ukraine, all sectors of the dry bulk carrier fleet were affected by cargo loss. For Capes, by far the most significant cargo losses of note unconnected with war in Ukraine were iron ore from Australia and Brazil. [P7]
The first half of 2022 witnessed tremendous volatility in tanker earnings in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as this swiftly reversed the extreme weakness that many tanker segments had been experiencing at the start of the year. [P11]
The Russian invasion of the Ukraine changed the dynamics of the market at a stroke. The cost of bunkers increased substantially, forcing ship owners to pass the additional cost onto charterers by way of increased freight rates. [P14]
The LNG shipping market has once again been dominated by the roller coaster that is the commodity itself, natural gas. The gas price environment has been strong all year and has not slowed down from the momentum that was seen in 2021. [P27]
This year we have seen the forces pulling traders in both directions. On the one side, uncertainty around supply chains is still very high while on the other, inflation and central banks responses can put a question mark on future demand. [P32]
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About Simpson Spence Young
Established in 1880, Simpson Spence Young (SSY) is the world's largest independent shipbroker. Our 400 employees cover each major market including dry cargo chartering, tanker chartering, LNG chartering and projects, ship sale and purchase, chemical chartering, consultancy and research, futures and towage.
SSY has a global reach, with offices in London, Singapore, Houston, Shanghai, Stamford - USA, Sydney, Geneva, Athens, Bergen, Hong Kong, New York, Mumbai, Madrid, Oslo, Sao Paulo, Copenhagen, Tokyo, Vancouver, Dubai, Varna and Zug.